1502
2023·7BuildingConstruction
BUILDING
ANAGEMENT
建筑经济
管理
债务违约背景下房
信用风险展望及建议
方松
上海建工股权投资基金管理有限公司
上海
200080
摘要：从地产行业债务规模增长，民营房企和国有背景房企再融资能力分化，民营房企偿债能力持续走弱，行业信用
风险增长四个方面来讨论地产行业的发展现状。深入研究现阶段房企的信用风险特征，包括收入规模、盈利能力、偿
债能力、外部监管环境等，并对房企信用风险进行展望。基于对地产行业信用风险的判断，提出加快行业整合制度的
建立，加强专业资管、咨询机构的建设，加强国资背景房企社会责任等三个建议，致力于促进地产行业平稳过渡，实
现长期健康发展。
关键词：债务违约；房企债券；信用风险；行业整合制度
中图分类号：
F293
文献标志码：
A
文章编号：1004-1001(2023)07-1502-04
DOl:10.14144/j.cnki.jzsg.2023.07.060
Credit Risk Outlookand Suggestions of Real Estate Enterprises
intheContextofDebtDefault
FANG Song
Shanghai Construction Group Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd., Shanghai 20008o, China
Abstract: The current situation of the real estate industry is discussed in four aspects: the growth of debt scale in the
real estate industry, the divergence of refinancing ability of private real estate enterprises and state-owned background
real estate enterprises, the continued weakness of debt servicing ability of private real estate enterprises, and the growth
of credit risk in the industry. The credit risk characteristics of real estate enterprises at the current stage are studied in
depth, including revenue scale, profitability, debt-servicing ability and external regulatory environment, and the credit
risk outlook of real estate enterprises is also discussed. Based on the judgment of the credit risk of the real estate
industry, three proposals are put forward, including accelerating the establishment of the industry consolidation system,
strengthening the construction of professional capital management and consulting institutions, and enhancing the social
responsibility of real estate enterprises with state-owned capital background, which are dedicated to promoting the
smooth transition of the real estate industry and achieving long-term healthy development.
Keywords: debt default; real estate bonds; credit risk; industry integration system
2021
年以来，随着“ 三道红线” 等一系列政策的施
行，地产行业的调整持续深入，房企债务违约的事件频频
发生。违约的房企大多为民营企业，且违约房企的规模
大，违约金额高，在市场上迅速引起了剧烈的反应。投资
者对于地产行业，特别是民营房企的信心明显减弱，民营
房企的再融资能力、偿债能力都遭受着以前从没有过的
挑战。
本文以219家上市房企（其中，剔除
ST
股票后
A
股上市
企业99家，港股上市企业120家）为研究对象，分析当前债
务违约背景下，国资背景房企、民营房企的信用风险分化
现状，并对地产行业未来的信用风险做出展望。最后，将
作者简介：方松（1977一），男，博士。
通信地址：上海虹口区东大名路501号白玉兰广场3202
(200080)
。
电子邮箱：
song.fang@scgifund.com
收稿日期：2023-04-23
从制度建立、专业机构建设以及国资背景房企社会责任三
个方面，提出行之有效的建
债务违约背景下房企信用风险展望及建议（论文）.pdf
